This Week in Conflict & Crisis
- International Crisis Group
- 2 hours ago
- 4 min read
International Crisis Group
In Focus
Relations between the U.S. and Nigeria have soured dramatically amid the Trump administration’s allegations that Nigerian Christians are being slaughtered en masse. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasianalyses these claims and the implications for bilateral relations.
On Our Radar
Iraq
Iraqis are set to head to the polls on 11 November for parliamentary elections. The run-up to the ballot has been marred by accusations of widespread vote buying and alarming insecurity. On 15 October, an explosive device killed Safaa al-Mashhadani, a provincial council member and candidate for the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance. Meanwhile, influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose bloc won the most parliamentary seats in the last elections but who later withdrew from politics, has called for a boycott, citing corruption in the political system. Crisis Group expert Lahib Higel says the boycott campaign and related disillusionment may limit turnout. Government formation afterward is likely to be contentious, as the incumbent prime minister, Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani, is poised to win the most seats but is also likely to face significant pushback from other Shiite politicians intent on denying him a second term.
Mexico
Protests erupted in Uruapan, Morelia and other cities in Michoacán state after the assassination of Uruapan’s mayor, Carlos Manzo, late Saturday. Manzo had been outspoken about rampant criminal violence in the state and had accused Governor Alfredo Ramírez Bedolla and state police of inaction. Manzo’s killing happened days after a prominent lemon grower was murdered for denouncing cartel extortion. In response, President Claudia Sheinbaum on Tuesday unveiled a new security plan for Michoacán, pledging to deploy more National Guard and federal agents, tighten coordination with state forces and introduce social support measures. Crisis Group expert David Mora says the plan largely mirrors militarised approaches tried in other states, which, on their own, have had limited effect. Persistent violence will likely further fuel public anger.
Sudan
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced Sunday that it is massing for a push toward El Obeid, capital of North Kordofan, where it has also stepped up drone attacks. This new initiative follows the RSF’s late October seizure of El Fasher in Darfur, which triggered mass displacement and reports of large-scale atrocities. A UN-backed analysis this week confirmed famine in both El Fasher and Kadugli in South Kordofan. The RSF on Thursday accepted a U.S.-sponsored proposal for a humanitarian ceasefire. The Sudanese army did not reply immediately but had indicated earlier its determination to keep fighting. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says El Fasher’s fall is entrenching de facto partition of Sudan and shifting the war’s centre of gravity eastward. External actors, particularly the U.S., should redouble diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire in order to avert a permanent split and an even larger humanitarian catastrophe.
You can find previous editions of On Our Radar here.
Analyst's Notebook
Maya Ungar analyses the U.S.-led diplomatic push ahead of a planned meeting between Ahmed al-Sharaa and Donald Trump.
You can find previous Analyst’s Notebook entries here.
CrisisWatch
The latest edition of our monthly conflict tracker highlights conflict risks in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Israel/Palestine, Mali, Pakistan, Sudan, Tanzania, Ukraine, Venezuela and Yemen in November. It also highlights resolution opportunities in Afghanistan, Israel/Palestine and Pakistan. In October, it spotlighted deteriorations in twelve countries and conflict areas and improvements in seven locations.
Publications
By Brian Finucane, Crisis Group’s Senior U.S. Adviser.
Originally published in Just Security
Podcasts
HOLD YOUR FIRE!
In this episode, Richard Atwood talks with Crisis Group experts Phil Gunsonand Renata Segura about U.S. military build-up off Venezuela’s coast, strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats and whether Washington could depose Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Listen to the series on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
THE HORN
This week, Alan Boswell speaks with Timur Söylemez, former ambassador and former head of the mediation unit at Türkiye’s foreign ministry, about how a shifting global order is reshaping the landscape for mediation and Ankara’s efforts to resolve conflicts in the Horn of Africa.This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.
Listen to the series on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Event Recordings
During this in-person event, Crisis Group’s President & CEO, Dr. Comfort Ero, discussed the transition in conflict prevention and mediation across the globe, at a time when the old system of multilateral peacemaking is fading, but a new one is not yet fully formed.
A recording of this event is now available here.
Crisis Group in the News
"If you look at the homicide numbers and other crimes [in Mexico’s Sinaloa], there’s not a direct connection between the presence of federal forces in the state and the lower numbers of murders and other crimes”.
– David Mora, Senior Analyst for Mexico, CNN
“In the U.S., there’s a surge of what you could call Christian nationalism, partly fueled by the Trump administration. So I think conflict in Africa risks being sometimes framed in that light”.
– Pauline Bax, Deputy Program Director for Africa, AFP
“There is a very high probability that the international force [in Gaza] will need to act robustly to keep order and deal with armed groups. Even UN humanitarian workers have said privately it will be necessary to use force to ensure stability”.
– Richard Gowan, Director for UN and Multilateral Diplomacy, The National
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